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Shutdown ‘Winners’

The news of the shutdown ending last evening was a relief. It buys America another few months before we ramp up to the next chapter in this saga. Both parties are declaring their winners and losers. If you look at the data, there are no winners. If one compared the American economy to something like the World Series, there is only one winner. Because whomever wins the World Series is the team standing at the end. An individual game or weekend series is short-term. They are the battle, not the war.

What has transpired over the last weeks and months will be repeated over and over – although with greater frequency. The nations debt compared to inbound revenues has passed the tipping point. For either side to say there was a winner is simply not true. The data speaks for itself.

In 2000, our nations debt was $ 5.685 trillion and our revenues were $ 1.985 trillion – meaning that if every single penny was spent to repay the debt, it would take 2.86 years.

Today the numbers are $ 16.964 and $ 2.736 trillion respectively – a payback of 6.20 years.

In 2017, those numbers are projected to $ 20.693 and $ 2.986 trillion – taking 6.93 years to repay.

These numbers are more than disturbing. They tell us exactly where we’re heading. Winners? The answer is ‘none’.

Mark Schuster, Partner

October 17, 2013

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